Factbox-Brokerages still expect 25-bps US rate cut in December
(Reuters) – Citigroup (NYSE:C) has lowered its expectations for an interest-rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December meeting, joining peers in predicting a 25-basis-point reduction, following robust nonfarm payrolls data. Brokerages including Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Goldman Sachs reiterated their expectation of a 25-basis-point cut after the jobs data.
Data showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs last month after rising an upwardly revised 36,000 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls accelerating by 200,000 jobs last month following a previously reported 12,000 rise in October.
U.S. job growth surged in November after being severely constrained by hurricanes and strikes, but a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% pointed to an easing labor market that should allow the Fed to cut interest rates again this month.
The Fed’s next monetary policy meeting is due on Dec. 17-18.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the NFP data:
Rate-cut estimates
(in bps)
Brokerages 2024
Dec
Morgan Stanley 25
Macquarie 25
ING 25
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 25
BofA Global 25
Research
Barclays (LON:BARC) 25
Goldman Sachs 25
*UBS Global 25
Wealth Management
Societe 25
Generale
Nomura –
Citigroup 25
J.P.Morgan 25
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages before the NFP data:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Brokerages Dec’2024 2025 Fed Funds Rate
BofA Global 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
Research June)
Barclays 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
2025)
Macquarie 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through June 2025)
June
2025)
Goldman Sachs 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through September 2025)
September
2025)
J.P.Morgan 25 75(throug 3.75% (through
h September 2025)
September
2025)
*UBS Global 25 125 3.00%-3.25% (through
Research end of 2025)
TD Securities 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Morgan Stanley 25 100 3.375% (Q4 2025)
(through
June
2025)
Jefferies 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Nomura – 50 4.125% (through end
of 2025)
*UBS Global Wealth 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
Management end of 2025)
Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) 25 No Rate 4.375%
Cuts
Citigroup 50 – –
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group