Argentina monthly inflation seen under 3% in November, but sticky

By Hernan Nessi

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s monthly inflation is likely to have remained under 3% in November, near its lowest level of the year but slightly up from the month before, underscoring the challenge for libertarian president Javier Milei to rein in prices.

A Reuters poll of analysts published on Tuesday showed a median forecast rise of 2.8% in the month after 2.7% in October. Estimates ranged from a 2.4% increase to 3%.

Argentina has been battling to bring down what has been the highest inflation rate in the world, peaking at almost 300% a year.

The expected slight uptick comes after a steady decline in monthly inflation since a peak around 25% last December, when Milei took office pledging to slash public spending to bring down prices and close a big deficit.

“The (downward) trend in recent months has been reversed. This slight monthly acceleration is likely driven by the increase in tariffs for regulated services, transport, fuel and food,” local consultancy Management & Fit said.

Lautaro Moschet, an economist with the Fundacion Libertad y Progreso, also expected inflation to be “slightly higher”.

“While this increase isn’t alarming, given a higher incidence of regulated prices … it’s important to highlight a quickening of food prices, driven especially by meat,” he said.

The longer-term improvement in the inflation outlook has allowed the central bank to cut interest rates recently.

A central bank poll expects annual inflation to end 2024 near 119%, well down from a peak earlier this year close to 300%, and 211% in 2023.

The national statistics agency INDEC publishes official inflation data for November on Wednesday.